Sunday, June 14, 2009

The 'weekend' effect in forex. (Market Strategy).

Considerable attention has been given to seasonal and weekday effects of forex prices. The hope is that by discovering patterns, you can exploit the trading opportunities they present. While transaction costs may limit returns, day-of-the-week patterns can provide useful insights into market dynamics.

But such tendencies are not magic, and correctly analyzing their performance as part of a comprehensive trading plan requires a good understanding of statistics and often a working knowledge of calculus. Another drawback for most analysts is the need for software capable of processing the data and performing the necessary calculations. However, you don't need to be a rocket scientist simply to glean helpful market information from these patterns.

With a less-sophisticated but reasonable approach using standard spreadsheet software, our results reveal that the sample data suggest a "weekend" effect exists in currency prices and any exploitable pattern in price movement is worth exploring. Going a step further might unearth the cause of the relationship, which would better support estimates of when to expect the anticipated move.

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